The euro is edged higher in the mid-session of Monday in lackluster trading amid low volume due to US Independence Day. The single currency is buoyant following the release on Friday of a mixed set of US labor data that may have reduced the chances of a rapid change in the Fed’s monetary stimulus.

At 4:43 p.m. GMT, EUR / USD is trading at 1.1868, up 0.0003 or + 0.03%.

In Friday’s report on non-farm wages in the United States – the overall figure has exceeded estimates, but unemployment has risen, labor force participation has not budged and average hourly earnings have met expectations – suggesting positive progress, but the Federal Reserve has room to wait before gradually reducing asset purchases. or hiking prices.

In other news, eurozone companies grew their business at the fastest pace in 15 years in June, as the easing of more restrictions on coronaviruses breathed new life into the country’s dominant service industry. block, according to a survey Monday.

IHS Markit’s Final Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), considered a good indicator of economic health, jumped to 59.5 last month from 57.1 in May, its highest level since June 2006.

EUR / USD daily

Technical analysis of the daily swing chart

The main trend is downward on the daily swing chart. However, momentum shifted higher after confirmation of Friday’s closing price reversal low.

A trade up to 1.1808 will cancel the reversing low in the closing price and signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change upward on a move up to 1.1975.

The minor range is 1.1975 to 1.1808. Its 50% level at 1.1891 is potential resistance.

Long term resistance is the 50% level at 1.2027. This is followed by the short term retracement area at 1.2037 to 1.2091. The combination of these areas creates a potential resistance cluster between 1.2027 and 1.2037.

Short term outlook

The short-term direction of EUR / USD will be determined by the trader’s reaction to 1.1891.

Bearish scenario

A sustained move below 1.1891 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough bearish momentum, then expect the sell to eventually extend all the way to 1.1808. Removing this level could trigger a downward acceleration with 1.1704 the next likely target.

Bullish scenario

A sustained move above 1.1891 will signal the presence of buyers. This could create the bullish momentum needed to challenge the main high at 1.1975. Removing this level will change the main uptrend with the resistance group at 1.2027 – 1.2037 the next likely target.


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